Diagram
Some readers seem to have missed my point about the trend to move stuff offshore. Yes, I understand that capitalism is all about exploitation of resources - and the last cheap resource left is third world labor. But it is really good for us?
And what happens if the next war between the east and west is not fought with bombs? What if the next war is fought along economic lines? Who can hold out longer, the USA or China? And say we just nuke em. Is that really a good idea if we depend on their factories for all out stuff?
All these are questions that economic theory does not really take into consideration, because the theory assumes that everyone just wants to make a whole lot of money. Right now that is what China is doing. But sooner or later they might want power to match that wealth. And who will they take on? Not Scotland. Not The Netherlands. Not France. They will lock horns with the USA. There is no economic theory that takes into account an irrational power grab. but knowing human nature, is it unreasonable to think that such a power move might happen?
These are just some concerns I have. People are too busy doing the rat race thing to get out of the hamster running wheel and look around. Or maybe they just do not want to think about it.
14 Comments:
It is scary to think about.
The disparity in wealth between the haves (USA) and the have-nots is so great that I fear a revolt/revolution is inevitable. It's unbelievable how much we have (in terms of material wealth) in the USA compared to just about everyone else.
Ahh, but it takes a long time to build factories! You can not just wave a magic wand and create steel mills and factories out of a few magic beans.
This is where economic theory crumbles, like Newton's Gravity in the sub-atomic world.
Competitive Advantage assumes a few things, the most important being that no nation WANTS to use their exports as a weapon. Seriously, if China decided to jack up all their prices tomorrow, what would we do? Import more from France? Import more from Spain?
No, we would just see the President on TV saying some trash about "consequences" while the price of almost everything in stores goes up. but we NEED THEIR STUFF, so we would not risk a war. We would pay them, and our GDP would go down while theirs went up. The economic world war will have begun.
And maybe, some other nation would build hundreds of factories to make up the difference, but it would take at least 10 years.
I'm with Lazy Iguana on this one.
Where's Econo Girl when you need her?
To get a preview of the China power grab, look at what's happening to Unocal. Chevron made a bid to buy the company, and now the Chinese government-owned company CNOOC has made a hostile takeover bid.
The U.S. government has the right to block the deal. Stay tuned.
Here's a link worth reading:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BBB3DBC06-BAD6-465B-A09D-4ECEC785B116%7D&siteid=google
Wow! So much informed discussion, my head is spinning!
Both the Lazy Iguana and Jevanking(TM) have very valid points.
If China suddenly jacked up prices, production would go to other countries and the US could get their goods there.
Having said that, maybe the same thing that caused China to do that is affecting the other cheap producers in the region. It could be as simple as amassing China's ONE BILLION SOLDIERS on their border with the offending country. It would be quite a disincentive to crossing China in the price-fixing war.
And would they necessarily want to? They could OPEC us. Remember in the '70's when OPEC all got together and jacked up the price of oil? South East Asia could do the same thing.
Lazy Iguana has a great point about economic theory not taking into account the silliness of nations.
Attacking the US Navy at Pearl Harbour was a horrible miscalculation on the part of the Japanese. But they did it anyway. If they had just asked three hookers on the street what they thought, even they could have told the Japanese what reaction to expect.
The Seven Days War was a totally stupid idea. EVERYONE knew that the Israelis would kick ass. But they attacked anyway.
History is full of foolishness and pride.
But how long would it take to move production to another nation? It would not happen overnight.
China has built thousands of factories, that use hundreds of thousands of workers. It would be years before any other nation, or even group of nations, could fill in the gap.
Meanwhile, we would be forced to pay the Chinese whatever they are demanding. What other choice would we have? Stop over consuming?
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