Venezuela

Forget Iran or any other place in the Middle East, and keep your eye on Venezuela.

The US Ambassador 's motorcade was attacked in Caracas by an egg tossing mob on motorcycles. The mob also pelted the Ambassador's car with onions and tomatos. And the local police did nothing to stop it. This is a violation of the Vienna Convention. What makes it worse is that it seems the government in Venezuela was behind the attack.

From what I understand about it, the Vienna Convention spells out the international rules for how a host country treats visiting diplomats AND diplomatic materials. Things like diplomatic immunity from laws (so that a government can not just decide to "arrest" another nation's diplomats for political reasons). Diplomatic bags passing through the USA are not subject to security screening - as long as they carry a diplomatic seal and the courier is registered with the State Department and is carrying the necessary paperwork from an embassy.

Overseas, US Diplomats and diplomatic materials are treated the same way as stuff is treated here.

So the pelting of a US Ambassador's car in Caracas is a bigger deal than it seems. The police escort should have done something about it - but they did nothing. The motorcade was followed for several miles and nothing was done.

However, if the Ambassador from Venezuela in Washington DC had his motorcade attacked by a mob armed with eggs, do you think that the Secret Service, the US Department of State Diplomatic Security, or the Capitol Police would have not reacted? Of course they would react. Not more than one egg would be thrown before the agency in charge of security took action.

The rift between Hugo Chavez and the USA has now gone beyond words and entered the world of actions. The next step will be the recall of Embassy staff by Washington DC and the expellation of Venezuela's diplomats in the USA. No doubt Venezuela then make good on its threat to cancel all flights by US airlines into Caracas, which will cause the FAA to bar any Venezuelan flights from landing at US airports. Military flights, which are currently allowed will probably also be halted by both sides.

Most Americans will respond with "who gives a crap about that place - we do not need them". But there is one problem. We DO need one important export from Venezuela. Oil. Venezuela has the largest oil reserves outside of the Middle East.

I clearly remember in the mid 1990's paying UNDER A DOLLAR for a gallon of gas. This was due to Venezuela. In 1995 Chavez was not the President yet, and the Clinton Administration was supporting the regime in power. In return we got very cheap oil. Chavez took power in 1999. Among the first actions he took was to reduce oil output to make more money off the black stuff. He got OPEC to go along with him.

In 2004, the USA imported 1,297 thousand barrels of oil a day from Venezuela - making the South American nation the #4 exporter to the USA.

If this riff extends far enough to include Chavez cutting off the supply - expect to see American Military in Venezuela. Of course for humanitarian reasons and to restore democracy. Chavez does have political prisions and he re-writes the constitution of the nation whenever he needs to.