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Thursday, September 04, 2008

Ike Update!

Thought you all may like a Ike update. So here it is.

Now if you will recall, I said I did not like Ike. And now I am in the cone. Right in the middle of it.

It it too early to know what this means. The way these graphics work is that you do not really just look at the line. You look at the cone. The storm can be anywhere inside that cone.

So what do these lines mean? Not a whole lot really. Sort of. The solid line has a higher degree of certainty than the dashed line. Likewise, the solid white area of the cone is more certain than the shaded area of the cone.

So all I have to do at this point is watch the thing. As if there is anything else I can do.

Standing on the beach, sticking your ass out to sea, and farting is useless. Do not ask me how I know this. I just do. It serves no purpose. And the police tell you to go home.

So not being able to get the whole story from the pretty picture, we go to the above chart. The wind speed probability table. As you can see, the table is not good. The storm is right now a category 4 hurricane. That is not good. Sustained winds of at least 145 mph. I know the above chart says 135 but it is old. The 5 AM track is out now, and it is at 145 now. The chart gives you an idea as to what they think is going to happen strength wise. As you can see, it is not forecast to get any weaker.

It could become a category 5 storm. In fact, I would not be too surprised if it does make cat 5. But once there, storms have hard time staying there. Usually if a storm makes cat 5 it can not sustain itself for too long, so they yo-y0 from 4 to 5 and then back to 4.

BUT....all this aside, I am less concerned about it now than last time I mentioned it. Do not get me wrong here, I still do not like the track it is on. It looks really bad for the Turks and Caicos Islands. It also looks not so great for Hispaniola. And it will likely make landfall somewhere along the east coast of the USA.

And then there is this. The 5 AM update.

Still in the cone, but look at the trend. I am at 25.3 N 080.2 W. More or less. If the storm stays on that track, then by Tuesday it will be at approximately 25 N 077 W. Close, but not too close. And heading away.

Good for South Florida, bad for The Bahamas. Also bad for somewhere else on the US coast.

The question for now is when will Ike make that turn to the north. The sooner the better for South Florida.

I think that it will hit the US coast. It could do this anywhere from South Florida to the Carolinas.

Hey - at least I never have to shovel snow. This is the trade off.



Blogger cathouse teri said...

I'm still worried about Hannah.

Hey, I mentioned you at my post today!

Blogger Lily Strange said...

As long as the snow doesn't threaten to box my cars in or stick my door shut, I don't bother shoveling. I live on a very secluded cul de sac in a trailer park, so nobody notices.


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