Now this is scary, and let me tell you why. The colored areas are predicting tropical storm force winds up to 120 hours from 8 PM Saturday to 8 PM Thursday. The long purple stripe is Gus, the shorter purple area is Hanna.
Purple means 90 - 100% chance of storm winds. The length of the purple area indicates certainty of the path. Shorter purple areas means either a slower moving system, a weakening system, or they do not know where the hell it is going.
Now here is where the scary part comes in. Notice how the same area devastated by Katrina is in the purple zone. That means 90 - 100% chance of tropical storm force winds. That is a very high chance.
If you look at the hurricane force winds probability, the center of the purple area goes from 90 - 100% chance to 50-60% chance. The probability for 50 knot winds is 80-90%.
The medium green area I am in means 10-20% chance of tropical storm force winds in the next 5 days. I am just outside the southern most edge of the 0-10% chance area of the 50 knot wind prediction zone.
In other words, the same area ravaged by Katrina is going to be hit again, and most likely by another whopper. New Orleans is still 10 or more feet below sea level. This storm could push a very large storm surge. And then to make it even worse, if the eye continues on the center line the worst quadrant of the storm (as far as storm surge goes) will hit New Orleans.
If I were there, I would be leaving now.
Another scary thing is the weather in Miami right now. Earlier tonight I went outside and the clouds were moving fast. Rain was coming and going, and the winds were blowing constantly with some gusts.
Just like I was in the outer bands of a storm. And I was in the outer bands of Gus. The eye is far away. This is a large storm.
It all adds up to some scary stuff. I hope everyone that lives where the storm will hit stays safe. I am really afraid that this storm is going to flood New Orleans again, and devastate the surrounding area again. Many people have only recently rebuilt. Many small towns in Louisiana and Mississippi are still rebuilding. Another monster may just wipe a lot of small towns off the map for many years to come. You can rebuild once. But twice? In three years? That is going to be harder. After a storm, not everyone comes back. Some rebuild elsewhere, others relocate to somewhere else where they do not have to rebuild. If there is no work, there is no reason to come back. So you grow roots somewhere else.
It took South Dade County YEARS to come back from Andrew. And this is a major metropolitan area. But a lot of the population that used to live down south moved away. Businesses also moved out. The economic toll was high, and it was not till the housing craze that new places started to pop up.
If Homestead were some small town in Pudunk Florida, it may not have ever come back.
Now for Hanna. As of now it looks like it will NOT be a South Florida event. The extended track has it turning away from my area. But there is not a great deal of confidence in this forecast path. So for the next few days Hanna is still somewhat of a question mark, but if I had to guess now I would say South Florida is in the clear for anything too bad. I base this guess on the 50 knot wind prediction zone. It will turn to the north.
But Monday is looking OK. So the plan right now is to hit the bay. While I can.
Labels: storm season 08