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Friday, September 05, 2008

In The Shit

Bad news. For me at least.


Well this is just swell. Remember how I said t he cone can shift around somewhat when you are in the extended area? Well it did.

Towards South Florida.

So, where am I? Good question. Somewhere in Miami.

But more specifically, my location is:

25 degrees 43.0 minutes N (latitude)
080 degrees 20.2 minutes W (longitude)

More or less. Not exactly but very close. These coordinates are actually on a lake - I do not live on the lake. But I am within 100 - 200 yards from that location.

Now here is how the coordinate system works. Each minute of latitude (north to south) is equal to one nautical mile, or 1.15 land miles. Each minute of longitude (east to west) is about .9 nautical miles - for my area. Longitude distances change depending on your distance to the equator.

Got it? Good! Now for some more good stuff from the hurricane center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 23.7N 61.0W 110 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 23.7N 63.0W 105 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 23.3N 65.6W 95 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 22.8N 68.1W 100 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 22.5N 70.6W 105 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 23.0N 75.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 09/0600Z 24.0N 78.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 10/0600Z 26.0N 81.0W 95 KT...INLAND

Forecast positions and max winds! Fun fun. Notice the 96 and 120 hour (4 and 5 day) positions.

24.0N 78.5W is south east of me.
26.0N 81.0W is north west of me.

So at this point, and this is subject to change as the forecast 4 - 5 days out has a lot of error in it, I am forecast to be in the eye. If it takes this path I will be in the eye, or just outside the eye. Either way Ill be in the shit.

115 knot winds = 132 mph winds = category 4 storm. Well just barely a category 4 storm. Category 4 storms have at least 131 mph winds.

So.......uhhhhhh......shit?

The next 12 - 24 hours will determine many things. Like for example how much of the shit I will be in. Given the choice I would rather not be in deep shit. I would rather be in shallow shit.

It all depends on what the Bermuda High does. There is a high pressure ridge that likes to hang out over Bermuda. If it gets stronger it will push the storm to the south. This will shift the forecast landfall location.

But even so, the models are converging on South Florida. Honestly, at this point I think it looks like a Dade or Broward landfall event.

Isn't that special?

Tune in tomorrow for more Ike news. I suppose.

Now if you are in South Florida, or have interests in South Florida - it is not set in stone that it will be a Miami-Dade or Broward landfall event. So no reason to panic yet.

Panic time will officially begin (or not begin) Sunday. So for now here is my advice. Eat, drink, and be merry; for tomorrow we diet. Maybe. Possibly. Most likely.

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5 Comments:

Blogger Lily Strange said...

Oh my. Do what you have to in order to stay safe. The closest I've come to winds like that is when a f-2 tornado was heading for the apartment complex I was living in at the time and fortunately started to dissipate a bit before it would have hit. We could still hear the whooshing of the wind. Scary!

06:24  
Blogger The Lazy Iguana said...

Well, Ill do what I can. But at this point I do not know what it will do.

08:16  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

One way or another, our (S. Fla.) weather is going to be in the can next week. Let's just hope that it is more like today than the other possibility!

10:50  
Blogger Fuzz said...

We're far enough inland that we usually get to watch this stuff from a distance. We do get the ocasional tornado though.

12:23  
Blogger Daisy said...

We have been nervously watching the updates. The 11:00 am update today looked a little more encouraging.

12:39  

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