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Thursday, January 04, 2007

No Thanks - I'll Wait For The Next Stall.

This is a working theory of mine. Recently I started to read stuff at "Bring It On" - one of the article authors asked me to expand on a comment I made. I figured that I would do that here. Because I can. And because the working theory is too large to be a comment.

Imagine you are at a football game, or a trans Pacific flight. You are in line to use the throne. Out of nowhere, some fat guy shows up and starts to buffalo his way to the front of the line holding a beer in one hand and a massive "bacon chili triple cheeseburger" in the other hand. He barges into the stall, pulling the occupant off the seat mid movement. The stall door closes, and within 30 seconds horrible sounds and smells start to leak out of the stall. After a full 5 minutes of that, the door opens. The beer glass is empty, and the bacon chili triple cheeseburger is gone - some of the remains of both can be seen on the fat guys shirt and face. There is no flush. Whatever came out of that guy is still in the bowl.

Now do you enter the stall, or do you decide to wait for another stall to become vacant? Do you want to deal with the mess that you know is waiting in there? Do you even want to know how bad the mess is?

Hell no. You are not going in there! Nobody wants to go in there. The haz-mat guy in the full bio containment suit does not want to go in there. That throne room is done dealing.

So where am I going with this? Here is where I am going. The White House has become that stall. The current occupant is the fat guy in my analogy. The mess is....well a mess.

Nobody really wants to be the next one to use the stall. At least not before someone who is not paid nearly enough goes in there with a steam pressure washer, a hundred gallons of bleach, and a huge wet/dry vac. And a pine air freshener, just for good measure.

But this is not something any party can admit at this time. If the Republicans admit this, what does this say about them? They created it. They set the agenda for the past 6 years. They had both houses of Congress AND the White House all to themselves. If they admit that they have contaminated the stall so bad that not even rats will go in there then it is all over for them. Come the next election the Republicans will loose so bad they will have less representation than the Libertarians.

And the Democrats? They can not admit this either. What happens if they do admit this? Whats that? You just took back power and now you say you do not want to win in 2008? No problem! The Republican base will be more than happy to see to it that you loose it all in 2008. And the Democrat base - why vote when your guy says "I want to loose"? And those in the center, who can vote either way? What will they do? Probably not vote for the guy who says "don't vote for me". And really it is those "can go either way" votes that win elections. Your base is your base - you can pretty much always count on them. But those in the center? Who knows what they will do. Once you loose the center, you could loose them for years to come.

So what do you do? How does either party deal with this reality? They HAVE TO do something! But what?

How about this - run people you think CAN'T WIN! AH HA! Now we are onto something! Yes, we have to run someone for President in 2008. But like I said before, nobody really wants to be the next to use that stall. So the solution is clear! Run your dog. Take the person you think has the least chance of winning a national election - and nominate them. That way you can pretend that your party wants to win - when in reality you want to have the other party in for the next 4 years.

If you are the party that has the power in Congress - all you have to do is hold onto that. Let the White House go! Let someone else fumigate that place, making it fit for human use again. Meanwhile you can sit back and build your power base in Congress - while the other party has to figure out a way out of the mess Bush created. Then in 2012 you can run a contender, and have it all. Congress and the White House. The keys to the kingdom.

This is why there is so much talk from the Democrats to run Hillary or Obama. There is no way either of these people can win a national election - unless you think the South will vote for either of them. Face it - neither can win.

And by the same token, look at who the early contenders for the Republican nomination are. Giuliani? Please. Many Republicans think he is far too liberal. He does not tow the line nearly well enough. McCain? The guy they demonized when he DARED to run against King George for the nomination in 2000? Remember what the machine did to McCain in 2000? They pissed on his war record - saying that did not matter. George was the man! McCain was not "conservative" enough for them.

Here is what both parties are thinking. Pick someone you think will only motivate the most hard core of your base to support. There will be enough of those people to fill the convention, and make for some decent crowds at primary speeches. You know, put on a dog and pony show to make it LOOK LIKE you really want to win.

But hope that the other party wins. Concentrate on keeping your congressional power, or gaining it back.

And the next President? Good luck to whoever that is. On day 1 you will have a list of things to deal with! There is that war. Do you keep forces there so more people get killed? Pull out and "loose"? And how do you pay for the war? Raise taxes? That is always popular. Just keep going into debt? Great idea there! How about an energy policy? Do you even make one? It is not like we have had one for 6 (soon to be 8) years now. How do you keep up troop levels? Start the draft? That will be a popular idea. Extend the stop loss? That will be a great way to encourage more volunteers to sign up! Not to mention the positive effects on morale. Just tell the troops that they will be in Iraq till they are killed or injured so bad they are of no further use to the military. And what if there is another attack after you order troops out? What if there is another attack after you send more troops in and announce "everything is OK! Progress is being made here!".

And this is just the foam floating on the surface of the Love Canal here. Go deeper and it just gets better. Who knows what you will find once you get to the mud at the bottom of the canal!

Look for 2008 to be a race to not win - by BOTH sides.

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12 Comments:

Blogger Jersey McJones said...

As depressing as this is, I think you're right. Perhaps that's why the demonized, now 72 year old, McCain is running out ahead on a field in which Romney (who's from friggin' Mass, and supports universal healthcare) is the only other viable candidate to stand up thus far on the GOP side. That all the Dems can come up with is Clinton and Obama is a joke. Those two couldn't beat David Duke. If the Dems really wanted to win, we'd be hearing from Bill Richardson, Wesley Clark, or Mark Warner, not goofball ex-senator John Edwards, unwinnable Hillary, and the inexperienced Barack Obama.

Of course, the flip side of all this is the Smithian-esque notion that someone will fill the vacuum just because they want to. For example, maybe one of the aforementioned Dems will slip through and win. Maybe Hillary would rather not be remembered as a loser. I don't know. The trouble with the Dems running Hillary is that it will so motivate the Right voters that we could well end up with another Bush. What do you think about that? At least, if the Dems run a more formidable candidate, the GOP would be forced to run one too, a win/half-win for America.

JMJ

07:26  
Blogger Econo-Girl said...

Both parties want the White House. They always do. The number of patronage jobs and projects are what drive them. And the ego of being close to the President of the United States.

08:14  
Anonymous Elizabethbranford said...

I like BIO too, I came here after seeing you at Dusty's as she blogs with me at The Blue Republic. You should post excerpts in our forums and link back here, as I think you have some interesting things to say.ANd add yourself to our blogroll (its self service, we're lazy. Like...iguanas?)

OK so now that the intros are out of the way, I wonder if you are right about this to some extent. Maybe to a large extent. The next president will have this war dumped on his/her lap, a record deficit, social programs in disarray, neglected infrastructure, economic turmoil, a weak dollar, a trade imbalance to make our heads spin.

We are losing our jobs, destroying the planet, and sometimes I think the rapture is the best plan to date for how to cope.

I like Obama, but think we need to see more first. he says the right things, but... I just dont see giuliani getting elected. We are too polarized right now to go for a crossover guy. I agree that maybe neither want this thing.

Keep in touch, Iguana.

08:15  
Anonymous ElizabethBranford said...

RE: econo girl

They have more clout with budget earmarks to give kickbacks to their ditricts. The senate is the place to be for that motivation.

We saw in the last election that NOT everyone wants to sidle up next to the president, some realizeed that even being photographed with the fuckwit would damage their chances. Ego? They dont want to be enar big shots, they want to be big shots, or be puppet masters controlling big shots.

08:19  
Blogger Badoozie said...

then again, theres always the option to just light a match

12:13  
Blogger The Lazy Iguana said...

JMJ - From the way I see it, there is no other rational conclusion to draw. Both parties are dragging out people who have already lost a primary race or have little chance of winning a national election (or both). Are they waiting to bring out a real contender, or is this it?

Econo - Yes there are egos to take into account. But parties also have egos. The Democratic Party will concentrate on gaining more congressional power, the Republicans will concentrate of taking that power back. The White House in 08 will be a bad place to be. ALL the mess created by W will still be there. The only way the next President can hold onto the office for a second term and NOT cause his/her party to loose big time in congress would be to clean up that mess. Do you think that is possible?

Elizabeth - Ill check out Blue Republic. I already posted this on the BIO "diaries" thing. All this stuff is somewhat new so I am just figuring out how it all works.

Susie - there is not a match large enough for this mess.

17:24  
Blogger Senor Caiman said...

The Lazy,

Excellent analogy. I really don't care how dirty the stall is I'll sit right down in it.

And let me tell you something else at least that fat pig didn't leave a tampon to get stuck on your designer sock.

19:51  
Blogger The Lazy Iguana said...

Well then that settles it! Senior Caiman for President 2008! He will sit in it.

Excellent slogan.

22:40  
Blogger Dusty said...

I am really glad I found your blog. You do rock and your very good at making your points..I will be back later to read this..I have to take a break, the ol back is giving me major fits today..with the rain and cold here in CA..42 degrees at 2:30 pm..wtf is wrong w/this picture? I live in a valley for gods sake!

Your a gem my dear iguana :)

17:32  
Blogger The Lazy Iguana said...

Well Dusty - I am probably going to vote republican for president in 08. They made the mess - let them try to fix it. If they can fix it GREAT! You will not hear me complain! Ill even vote for that person again!

But if they can not fix the problem - they will loose it ALL for their party. Can't blame the Democrats for Bush's legacy!

18:18  
Blogger dusty said...

The whole process has been bastardized by Bush..he won when he didn't really win the first time..I of course will vote for my dog or one of my cats if the Dem's don't put up a decent candidate..

Of course Bush is leaving the war and other messes for someone else to clean up..he doesn't give a shhit..he is off to clear brush and oversee his presidential library..the bastard made a mess in TX and now the entire USA..wotta dick!

01:52  
Blogger The Lazy Iguana said...

Dusty - I plan to vote republican for the same reasons. Let THEM deal with the mess. If a Democrat gets in, and can not fix the mess, the entire party gets the blame.

09:28  

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