And It Begins

So June 1 was the first day of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

And on this day, Tropical Storm Barry formed in the Gulf Of Mexico! It is going to hit Florida. Of course. The first named storm of the season formed a few weeks ago, before the official start of the season. It kind of fizzled, but still produced the perfect amount of wind to fan the Florida wild fires - and NO RAIN to put them out. How about that.

Anyway, the 11 PM update had this thing with a 15% chance of going to a category 1 hurricane and a 15% chance of it downgrading to a tropical depression. The 2 AM update has the storm with a 5% chance of going to category 1 status, but it also reduced the probability of it downgrading. So therefore it is safe to conclude that Florida will get a moderate strength tropical storm. Not too bad really. Nor Easters can be just as strong, or even stronger. And from all apparent evidence, this storm will bring rain. That part of the State needs the rain. So while this is going to be a pain in the ass for people, it is going to be more good than bad. At least I think so. Property damage should be minimal for a tropical storm, compared to a category 3 or stronger hurricane!

Really the part of the State that could use the rain the most is the big lake. A LOT of rain needs to fall on the Kissimmee River Basin. This river feeds the big lake. The lake is in bad shape, navigation depth for the lake is under three feet now.

The track also shifted a bit in a strange way. The 11 PM map had the thing shifted slightly more to the north for the FL landfall, and more over water than land off GA and SC. It also had it making landfall at noon today. Not it has it barely inside the State at 8 PM. So it seems to be slowing down. This will cause a greater error track (AKA "Cone Of Death").

But the real important thing is the wind speed prediction forecast. The numbers say it is not expected to get any stronger. Or any weaker. The next update will probably be at 6 AM because of the proximity of the storm to land, but usually it would be at 10 AM.

I think the cone will get shifted more to the south. It is a possibility. I do not think it will be a drastic shift to the south, but I think that it will not hot FL as far to the north as the 2 AM map claims. Remember, I am talking about the center line here. Do not pay attention to that - ANYWHERE in the cone is where they predict the storm to be! So if I am right and the code does shift to the south, it means the prediction is good. A bad prediction would put the storm outside the cone of death by the time the maps are updated again. A lot of people make the mistake of just looking at the center line.

Look at the map and you can see how the NWS has already set up the shift to the south. See that blue line? Areas along that line are under a Tropical Storm Warning. People on this line should expect tropical storm conditions in the next 24 hours. Now notice how that line extends SOUTH of the cone of death, but not west of it? How about that. Now why would they do this?

Conflicting models would explain it. They are getting some models that say shift the cone to the south, but others say no. There could be other factors as well. The NWS is actually very liberal with warnings and watches. If there is any chance a storm could go somewhere they will issue a watch or warning. Watch and warning areas often stray outside the forecast cone of death. But when the warnings are not equally distributed (as in this case) it can mean a cone shift is likely.

A link to the Tropical Prediction Center of the National Weather Service is in the left sidebar, under Iguana Links.

In any case, this is not going to be that horrible. It could be a lot worse. This is a good reminder for everyone to not screw around. This storm will catch people off guard. People will not have shutters, and not have supplies. Some will, but I really think that most people - even those that have shutters -will not put them up. This thing just formed close to land quickly. Nobody had any time.

I hope this thing is cleared out by Sunday.