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Saturday, August 16, 2008

Cone Of Death

So once again the cone of death is descending upon Florida.

Fay is the name of this storm. And as you can see by Monday whatever is going to happen in South Florida will happen.

And nobody can do squat about it.

The current forecast path is the solid black line. But the way these things work is you do not pay attention to only the black line. The storm can be ANYWHERE in the cone of death.

Hence the term I invented. I think it sounds better than "cone of uncertainty" or whatever the official name is.

Now you can go to the National Weather Service Tropical Prediction Center using the handy link in my left sidebar.

OR you can just listen to my guess.

So here is what I think this thing is going to do. I have the feeling it will turn more to the right. This will steer it away from Key West (the black line runs right over Key West now) and closer to Miami. Where I am.

BUT this is not so bad. If it turns like I think it will then the eye of the storm will spend a lot of time over Cuba. Taking in the sights. Smoking some cigars. Drinking Havana Club rum. Playing dominoes. And so on.

When a storm stays over land, it falls apart. Tropical weather can not exist over land. It can not strengthen over land.

So what will happen is it will fall apart into a glorified rain storm. Then when it goes over water again it will have only about 100 miles or so to reorganize.

It will not be able to do this.

So if it turns like I suspect it MIGHT and it spends more time over land then by the time it passes over Miami it will not cause any days off. Nothing will close. It will rain a lot. And thats all.

So there we have it. My guess. Based on what I think now. But my guess may change, depending on what conditions I observe over the next day or so.

At any rate, everyone living in the Florida Keys, and on the Gulf Coast should keep an eye on this thing. In fact, of you live on the Gulf Coast of Florida you should spend Saturday getting ready.

Because IF it does not turn like I think it might, and it DOES get into the Gulf Of Mexico - it will be bad news. The waters of the Gulf are bathtub warm. The storm could rapidly intensify. It could become another Charlie.



Anonymous krok98 said...


The storm is coming right at me. Luckily I kept the trailer for my boat. It figures this would happen just as I buy a fairly good size house on the water. If you want a house on the water now is the time to buy in Pinellas County. I can hardly wait to loot the Wal Mart.

Blogger The Lazy Iguana said...

Krok - you keep that little flats boat in the water? I would not do that. Too many maintenance issues. From engine corrosion issues to bottom paint to the possibility a battery can fail in a rainstorm and the boat could sink at the dock - it is all too much for a small boat that is so easy to trailer. Get a lift or some davits or even build your own ramp.

Personally, I would go with a lift. They are awesome. But with davits you can swing the boat over dry land making it easy to pull drain plugs, clean the bottom of the hull, and so on.

Blogger The Doozie said...

Can you name all the hurricanes in your adult life without looking?


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