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Sunday, August 17, 2008

Fay Is On The Way


Now this map may look like the Saturday 2 AM update I posted yesterday. But it is not. This is the Saturday 11 PM update.

And it shifted ever so slightly to the WEST.

But I was not totally wrong. The Saturday 11 AM update did have it moved to the EAST. As I thought it might go. But the 2 PM update or the 6 PM update moved the cone back to where it was, and now it is just slightly to the west.

This is not good. The current track gives the storm more time over open water.

Of course, the path still has error. And now that the thing is over Cuba I do not know if the hurricane plane can enter the airspace. So we will have to wait for the position and forecast track of the thing tomorrow.

I still say it will move back towards the east. But it will probably not turn enough for those on the Florida Gulf Coast to ignore. Anyone on the gulf coast currently in the cone needs to prepare now. Its on the way for you guys - unless it makes a big shift to the east.

My guess for the Miami area remains unchanged. It will just be snotty weather. Rain will fall. Very likely LOTS of rain. And there will be winds. The marine forecast for this area is 15 - 20 knot winds with gusts to 30 knots for Monday, building to 25 - 35 knots in the evening and after midnight. Gusts of up to 50 knots. Just so you know, tropical storm force winds are 35 - 64 knots.

Bay waters are supposed to be "rough". Go figure. It is not a good idea to go boating when there is a tropical storm? REALLY!?!?!??! Well hell - time to cancel that fishing trip!!

And you thought I was going to comment about the Obama / McCain interview thing. HA! Fay is a far more pressing matter. I did see the interview and I thought both dudes did OK. I do not think either man told any outright lies or other forms of bullshit. Questions were asked, answers were given, life moves on. BUT....I do have some commentary which I will share Monday. Maybe. Unless Monday's post is taken over by yet more Tropical Storm Fay coverage.


The 5 AM path did shift ever so slightly to the east. I am now in a tropical storm watch, meaning I should expect tropical storm conditions in the next 48 hours. It could become a tropical storm warning (I sort of expect this at this point) or even become a hurricane watch / warning.

The next update I see (either 11 AM or 2 PM) will show my "shift to the east" guess either correct or wrong. So far my guess is looking like it is not dead yet. But the next update could shift it back to the west.

Nobody is out of the shit yet. Everyone in the pink (hurricane watch) or yellow (tropical storm watch) areas should act accordingly.



Blogger The Doozie said...

They should call it Fag

Blogger TLP said...

I've missed your Cone Of Death. Not that I wish you bad luck. Just that I enjoy the cone and shit.

Blogger The Lazy Iguana said...

Doozie - what does a hurricane have to do with a bundle of wood?

TLP - The cone of death is very cone shaped. I am currently "out of the cone" but it could shift. The thing is that they know the storm is going to turn to the north, they just do not know when. I got more maps. I am waiting for the 11 PM update.


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