So Now What?
OK this is classic "cone of death" stuff. So pay attention!
But first, a recap. As you may recall the Sunday 5 AM update had Miami in the cone. The storm shifted to the east for the Saturday 11 PM, Sunday 2 AM, and Sunday 5 AM update.
And then it was sleep time. So I missed out on the 8 AM and 10 AM update. OOPS!!!
But I got the 2 PM update!!! Can't keep me down for that long!!
Hey, looks like it is moving more to the east. As I thought it might. Well great. At this point I was in the 60% chance of tropical storm conditions block, and all indications were that the chance would go up.
And then the 5 PM update came out. THREE HOURS LATER.
This is actually the 8 PM update, but it looks the same as the 5 PM. Notice the cone. WAY over to the west. Why I am not even in the cone! And just like that it went from 60% chance to 40% chance of tropical storm conditions. The storm was going to be east of Tampa and now it is west of Tampa?
OK! Who is running the forecast office? Really now. You just can't be shifting the cone of death around like this! Not if you want us to take this seriously. I mean whats next? A shift back to the east??
Yup. A slight change in direction again. And a slow down. The storm is now moving 10 knots as opposed to 15 knots. And the direction changed from WNW to NW.
Chance of tropical storm winds in Miami is still 40%, but that figure is likely to change at 2 AM or 5 AM or 8 AM or whenever they change the map again.
And they will. The pattern is for the 2 AM path to be the same as the 11 AM path, the 5 AM path swings more to the east, then later maps go back to the west.
So nobody knows what the hell is going on.
But this is what I do know. Slowing down means a direction change. Always. Shit slows down before it turns. And the shit is slowing down.
So here is what I am expecting now.
Tropical storm conditions. Maybe not constant tropical storm conditions, but the nasty stuff will almost certainly come in squalls. And it is going to rain. A lot.
Ill stay up for the 2 AM update. It will be interesting to see if the 2 AM map changes. I suspect it might.
In other news, Monday is pretty much canceled. A lot of places will be closed tomorrow, and the first day of school is not going to happen.
A THREE DAY WEEKEND!!! How about that?
The 2 AM map did not change significantly from the 11 PM map. But the 5 AM update did chance slightly - once again confirming a prediction I think I made in this post.
Now it is moving NNW at 12 mph. The forecast map now looks like the 2 PM track from yesterday!
Confused yet? Yea - I thought so.
My Iguana Sense is tingling slightly. The turn to the NNW will continue. There is a high pressure zone to the east of Florida, but that zone seems to be moving away (allowing the storm to turn). The chances for tropical storm conditions in Miami are probably more than50% again. It is going to be a crappy day. Expect the crap to be in full swing by the late afternoon. Unless it slows down.
I also suspect that the 8 AM map will not change much. The 11 AM map may show a track more to the north (swinging the cone to the east). If not the 11 AM map than the 2 PM map will show this.
I could see it myself on the satellite views. And I am an idiot. I have not studied weather in college. I just have internet access, and I have been watching satellite views.
I detect a tropical storm party brewing. I need to remember to get some beer. I hope the stores are open for at least a few hours today.
Watching the last minute people scramble for bottles of water amuses me.
And if you are a last minute person - DO NOT PANIC! If you live on the east coast of FL it is just a tropical storm. You will probably not have disrupted city water service.
When the shit gets here, do not drive unless you absolutely must. Visibility can go from poor to none very quickly in these things.
Labels: Tropical storm Fay