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Saturday, August 18, 2007

Forecasting, Guessing, Can Not Get A Decent Phone In The USA

This whole Dean thing is getting downright spooky. Someone is going to get hit, and they will get hit HARD. Big time hard. I am afraid that the island nation of Jamaica is going to see the worst of it. Jamaica and the Grand Cayman Islands. Or should I say THE Grand Cayman Island. Little Cayman and Cayman Brac will likely not see the absolute worst of the storm. But they will still see some bad conditions.

So why the rather gloomy outlook? The forecast track just keeps looking worse and worse. Here is how I base my guess. First, the forecast track from the NWS.

Now notice how the track has not changed significantly over the past few days. The track did jog slightly to the north, but not by much. Yesterday the track had it just to the south of Jamaica till the 11 PM update. Since then it has it going right over the island nation. The jog to the north is not at all significant. At the current speed the storm is moving, Jamaica will be feeling the effects well before 48 hours.

Now here is what I found to be the worst. The wind probability table. This table you have to pay attention to. You have to watch it over time and see how it changes - if it changes. So here is the 5 PM wind probability table.

So according to this table, in the next 24 - 36 hours, the chance of the storm bring a category 4 or 5 is 50%. The chance of category three winds are 40% for the next 24 hours, and 33% in the next 36 hours. And look at the 12 hour prediction. 50% for category 4 or 5, 45% for category 3, and 5% for category 2. The storm is already at category 3 by the way. The table over the past few days has been following a pattern - the odds of a 4 or 5 keep going up.

We can therefore conclude that the storm will be a category 4 or even 5 by the time it gets to Jamaica. VERY bad news for them indeed. This is starting to look like another Hurricane Gilbert. It is on an almost identical track as Gilbert. Gilbert was the second most intense hurricane observed, with Wilma taking top honors. Gilbert became a cat 5 storm after it left Jamaica, Dean could hit Jamaica as a 5. It very well could.

Now you may have noticed that the above table is from the Friday 5 PM update. So what about the Friday 11 PM update? Way ahead of you all here.

All NA? What the hell is up with that? Now this is the really scary part. Why would the computers suddenly come up with this result? And why would the NWS change their official published data to what amounts as "I have no idea"? Odds of a major storm have gone up and up. So what are the forecast models really saying now? NA? Not available? I do not buy it. I hope people under the gun are taking this seriously and are not underestimating what they are in for. This storm will cause major damage.

So, what the hell is up with the post title saying I can not get a decent phone in the USA? Why would I say that? Well lets see. Still thinking......still thinking.....OK I got it!

This photo of a flower was taken by Jane on a 2 megapixel CELL PHONE CAMERA! Can you believe that? A cell phone camera. My cell phone camera sucks ass. It is almost useless. It takes the worlds worst digital photos.

Apparently, I have to go the UK to get a decent phone with a usable camera.

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Blogger actonbell said...

That is a beautiful picture. When you stated that you could not find a decent phone in the US, silly me, I wasn't thinking of cameras, but of those "can you hear me now" commercials.

And I feel very bad for those in Dean's way.

Anonymous Anonymous said...

what brand phone does she have?

as for all those tables and stuff, that is making me dizzy

Blogger The Lazy Iguana said...

Actionbell - That is the best cell phone photo I have ever seen. It may well be the best cell phone photo ever taken in the history on the entire universe.

Doozie - I have no idea what phone it is. The hurricane tables will make you dizzy. And it seems that the storm will hit as a cat 5. There will be massive and widespread damage. No place in Jamaica will be safe. I hope that people are ready and there are enough sturdy shelters for the people.

Blogger Emma Sometimes said...

Go Jane! Go Jane! It's her birthday! It's her birthday!!

Bravo, that is a gorgeous picture, and with a cell phone. wow, I'm in shock...Mr. Coffee has a new 2 pixel RAZR. They take amazingly better photos than the old RAZRs.

I hope you stocked up on granola bars, batteries, tp, and bottled water. Or maybe if you are low on TP you must have extra graph paper you can use.

As for coffee that is 4 degrees cooler than the molten core of the sun? I am so tempted to just dump the dang thing over, my kids need to go to college, dammit.

Oh, and next time, just order a medium coffee in a large cup and add a 'side' of ice, maybe it won't be so confusing? Maybe not, drive thru service IS rocket surgery.

Blogger The Lazy Iguana said...

Emma - That photo is amazing. That is why I stole it, but I could just not steal it all the way. I had to give credit. Here in Miami it is hard to get good gringo coffee. I can get all sorts of espresso (AKA Cafe Cubano) but nobody seems to know how to use an automatic drip machine. Which is easier to use than an espresso machine.

The medium coffee in a large cup with a side of ice is more complicated than "coffee with two or three ice cubes". Next time I am going to bring my own damn ice and tell them to only fill it 3/4 of the way up. Or I will just ask for a lot more cream, because the cream cools the coffee down.

Blogger Cheesemeister said...

The one good photo I ever took was taken when I was 10 years old with one of those Brownie cameras. So much for high tech--that was just dumb luck!

Blogger Dusty said...

Christ, a cell phone cam? YOUR kidding right?

No way thats a cell phone freaking way!


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